THE BACKGROUND
"Man, it's tough hitting fourth [behind Mark McGwire].
For one thing, I hit into more double plays. I never used to hit
into double plays.
"Mark's always on first, and he's not fast enough to break up the double play. It really can get you down. It gets me down, that's for sure."
So said Brian Jordan after a mid-summer 1998 Cardinals loss.
Ballplayers say the darnedest things after a loss.
-----
But Jordan's comment, an unsolicited stream-of-consciousness comment, was a first for yours truly.
Complaining about the man on first not being able to break up the double play?!
But Jordan, one of the most affable of the '98 Cardinals, was no doubt (indirectly) speaking his mind about the batting order.
And it was no secret that Jordan and Ray Lankford, just to name two of McGwire's teammates, thought that McGwire was not well-suited to the #3 spot in the batting order.
That spot, the #3 spot in the Cardinals batting order, was coveted by both Jordan and Lankford.
But Brian Jordan, in 1999, is having a career year as an Atlanta Brave.
And in the wake of Andres Galarraga's cancer rehab, a rehab that has sidelined him for the entire '99 season, guess who is batting fourth for the Braves?
That's right.
Brian Jordan.
And back in St. Louis, in 1999, who hits clean-up, behind Mark McGwire?
That would be Ray Lankford.
Of
course, Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs while batting third in Tony
La Russa's 1998 Cardinal line-up.
Why mess with a good thing?
SOME STATISTICS
Baseball's best statistics are based on simple concepts.
Baseball's best statistics are most useful when they seem to enhance the game itself.
And baseball's best statistics are magical when they reveal the game's details.
Mark McGwire's recent home run exploits have provided baseball fans with a treasure trove of statistical goodies.
A St. Louis Sports Online favorite is that Mac, since 1995, has hit more homers than singles...
No other player has accomplished such a feat, over a full season, even one time.
So when you come to the ballpark, you're more likely to see Mac homer than single.
That's simple.
Another goodie?
Mac, in '98 and '99, has not homered on what some consider to be the ultimate hitters count: three balls and no strikes.
In fact, only nine of Mac's '98 and '99 homers, 124 in all, came with three ball counts.
Seven of those blows came when the count was three-and-two...and two came with a three-and-one count.
So, when you're at the ballpark, and you, uhhhh, need some relief, you probably won't miss Mac go yard if you make your pit-stop after Mac works the ball count to three.
That's useful.
But what happens when McGwire gets on base via a route other than a home run?
How often does Big Mac score as a result of a teammate's handiwork (or an opposition misplay)?
Astonishingly, Mark McGwire, in 1998, drove himself in 70 times...but scored "only" 60 other runs.
This
trend is repeating itself in the '99 season as well.
So when Mark McGwire steps into the batters box...you're more likely to see him score on one of his own homers than all other ways put together.
Well, that's simple and magical.
And it implies that Mac is a prolific home run hitter...but that once he reaches base, that his teammates have a difficult time driving him home.
La RUSSA ON BATTING ORDERS...
But this story is about batting orders...
And in particular, this story is about Mark McGwire's place (third), a controversial place, in Cardinal manager Tony La Russa's batting order.
Every little detail gets magnified in a loser's clubhouse...and for much of 1999, La Russa's Cardinals have been under .500.
As a result, there's been a great deal of discussion about La Russa's insistence that Mark McGwire fills the #3 slot in his batting order.
And most of that discussion has been critical of La Russa.
So, in a recent St. Louis Sports Online interview, we asked Tony La Russa why Mark McGwire bats third.
"The first reason is, that when he got off to a struggle here...when we moved him to third...he got going...and we said...wow, let's keep him going. And then he mentioned that he felt very comfortable there.
"So he started there the next season...and he hit 70 [home runs].
"The whole idea with any player or pitcher is that you want to try to get them in a position where they can max out. So you have one player who is really maxing...then let's figure out what we can do for the other players.
"But
as far as strategy, there's no doubt that if you had three terrific
on-base percentage guys hitting in front of Mark...AND...two well-respected
run producers to hit behind him...then [McGwire] could hit fourth...and
it would be great.
"I mean, we'd score a thousand runs. But you look at the reality of our club...
"We're looking for a solid lead-off man that has a big on-base percentage. We don't have on-base percentage guys.
"The two best on the club are Mark and Ray [Lankford]...so the natural question is...why don't you hit Ray in front of Mark?
"Because Ray is the most respected guy to hit behind him.
"So there are two ways that you lose Mark.
"And the one that's the most for sure is if you don't protect him from behind. If you don't have anybody behind him, they'll pitch around him all year long. Ray protects him.
"The other way that you can max production is to have guys on base when he comes to bat...you know, they just naturally won't say...well we can't just put another baserunner on...because there's already damage on the bases.
"The problem with explaining it is...does this sound like we're tailoring the line-up for Mark?
"No, it sounds like you've got a really dangerous threat who happens to be Mark McGwire. You try to do the same thing...
"I mean...why did Brian Jordan hit in front of Mark,
and why does J.D. [Drew] hit in front [of Mark]?
"Because both of those guys have so much talent, that hitting them in front of a guy as dangerous as Mark should bring them up. So you're really trying to do the same for every player.
"But as far as Mark McGwire, hitting him deeper in the lineup, without protection, means that the bat would be taken out of his hands.
"And that doesn't help us win.
"If we had two Ray Lankfords behind him and two Ray Lankfords in front of him...then Mark McGwire would hit fourth."
But as Brian Jordan pointed out in 1998, the one negative to McGwire-in-the-three-spot
is his Mac's lack of foot speed.
And Tony La Russa acknowledges that.
"The negative to hitting Mark third...is that he really doesn't have good foot speed. And therefore, like...it happened in the Atlanta series...and it happened against the Marlins...when he's on first base, and Lankford singles to right field...and you've got first and second instead of first and third, that's not a plus for your offense.
"But Canseco [who hit third in Oakland] had very good foot speed...and that's an advantage that he has.
"[In Chicago], Harold Baines batted third. He had good foot speed.
"Yeah, [McGwire] does clog up the bases. That's an honest statement. He doesn't have really good foot speed.
"A lot of times...he's actually a good baserunner. He has good instincts...but there are times he plays when his legs are sore or his back is sore... and you're not going to push an extra base and maybe run a chance at banging him out of the line-up.
"So taking extra bases is not a [McGwire] strength and that is something that you would put on your job description for the third spot...so mark him down for that.
"Ray Lankford would have that, see?"
Of course, in the second half of the 1998 season, Tony La Russa surprised, and perhaps even shocked, the baseball world with his pitcher-batting-eighth batting order.
Such a batting order meant that, after the first inning...McGwire's turn would come after three hitters, since an ideal #9 hitter would be viewed as a second leadoff man.
So Mark McGwire was a clean-up hitter. Sort of.
Measured in wins (43) and losses (33), La Russa's second-half line-up experiment was an unqualified success.
And McGwire didn't seem to mind either.
During that same interview session, La Russa also discussed his batting order innovation.
"[Batting the pitcher eighth] did do the thing...where as soon as your turned your line-up around, you had the potential of your third place hitter became your cleanup hitter.
"In the American League, with nine position players, a lot of managers use that ninth-place hitter as a second lead-off.
"I had done it...I had seen it done.
"Therefore, it's an easy concept for me say, hey, there is something here to generate one more baserunner before you go to the top of the line-up."
THE TEASE
Dial up St. Louis Sports Online in the next few days to read Batting Orders...and Statistics (Part Two).
For a preview of what's to come--consider the following.
In 1998, when Mark McGwire reached base via a hit or a walk (but NOT a homer), he was driven home by a teammate approximately 24% of the time.
Meaning this: in 1998, while batting third, and excluding home runs, Mark McGwire scored one run for every four times that he reached base.
Mac's '98 24% "scoring percentage" was very similar to the scoring percentages posted by slow-footed sluggers such as Cecil Fielder (27% in 1990), Johnny Bench (28% in 1970), Willie McCovey (24% in 1969), Ted Kluszewski (25% in 1954), Frank Howard (23% in 1968), Ralph Kiner (27% in 1949), Harmon Killebrew (23% in 1969), and a later-vintage Henry Aaron (26% in 1971).
Most of these sluggers spent the majority of the listed years batting fourth.
On the other hand, the "scoring percentages" for sluggers such as Sammy Sosa (33% in 1998), Ken Griffey in (32% in 1998), and Frank Robinson (32% in 1966) indicate that these players, all of whom spent the majority of their listed years batting third, scored one run for every three times that they reached base (excluding home runs).
In other words, these players...faster players...were easier for their teammates to drive home--an important factor to consider when trying to decide whether a given player should bat third or fourth.
Brian Jordan certainly saw things that way.
From a historical perspective, then, Mac's scoring percentage in 1998 (24%) is thus more in line with the Fielders, the Benches, the McCoveys, the Kluszewskis, the Howards, the Kiners, the Killebrews, and the older Aarons of the baseball world: the clean-up hitters.
But five of the top seven single-season home run hitters of all time--Babe Ruth (60 homers in 1927), Roger Maris (61 in 1961), McGwire (70 in 1998), Sosa (66 in 1998), and Ken Griffey Jr (56 in 1998)...all batted third in their respective lineups, for a majority of the games during their record campaigns.
Hank Greenberg (58 homers for the Tigers in 1938) and Jimmie Foxx (58 homers for the Phil. Athletics in 1932) hit fourth and fifth in their team's respective lineups.
We'll have more questions than answers...but there is more to come, in this space, on the subject of batting orders and statistics.
